Empirical Study of Cyberspace Conflict

Session Submission Type: Full Paper Panel

Session Description

This panel brings together pieces that advance the empirical study of interstate conflict in cyberspace. Specifically, while much of the extant research on cyberspace remains theoretical—due in large part to the clandestine nature of the domain—this panel seeks to contribute to the field by applying new empirical methods. The first paper addresses this methodological dilemma most directly. Buchanan offers a review of official and non-official sources on cyberspace conflict, which social scientists may use to advance its empirical study in future research. The second cluster of papers applies various experimental techniques that complement the archival and documentary sources that Buchanan discusses. Demarest, Jost, and Schub leverage a survey experiment with U.S. elites to better understand whether and how military advantages in the cyber, nuclear, and conventional domains affect decision-making during interstate bargaining. Schechter, Schneider, and Shaffer employ an experimental war game with small teams to investigate whether degraded command and control over cyber capabilities leads to more aggressive or constrained interstate bargaining. Finally, Kertzer, Oppenheimer, and Zeitzoff turn to a non-elite US sample to investigate whether cyberattacks cause “rally around the flag” effects parallel to the effects observed in existing scholarship on conventional attacks.

Sub Unit

• DIVISION 21: Conflict Processes

Individual Presentations

• Watching the Watchers: Sources for Studying Cyber Operations  - Ben Buchanan, Georgetown University

• How Militarized Cyber Technology Affects Interstate Bargaining - Heidi Demarest, US Military Academy; Robert Schub, University of Nebraska, Lincoln

• Wargaming “War Games”: Does Thermonuclear Cyber War Exist? - Benjamin H Schechter; Rachael Shaffer

• Cyberattacks and Domestic Politics - Harry Oppenheimer, Harvard University; Thomas Zeitzoff, American University

Chair

• Erik Gartzke UCSD

Discussants

• Rebecca Slayton Cornell University

• Michael Poznansky University of Pittsburgh