Strategic Competition and Technological Superiority

Session Submission Type: Full Paper Panel

Session Description

The recent resurgence of great power rivalry has raised critical questions about theories and the dynamics of strategic competition, while posing urgent issues for policy. Technological developments can be a critical influence upon the rise and fall of great powers, but existing theories do not adequately explain the tactics a rising power can use to catch up with or even surpass the leading state, the means through which leaders may be able to preserve or reinforce their superiority, and the results of their strategic competition. Today, the intersection of rapid advances in emerging technologies, particularly artificial intelligence, with great power rivalry could result in new types of arms racing and may increase the level of uncertainty about the military balance in ways that exacerbate the risks of miscalculation.

This panel introduces new theories and case studies that consider the impact of technology on strategic competition. Eugene Gholz will examine the state of the U.S. defense innovation ecosystem, considering critical factors that may enable U.S. to sustain an operational advantage. Andrea and Mauro Gilli will evaluate the potential implications of artificial intelligence for future military power. Benjamin Jensen will examine the dynamics of military offsets in historical perspective, focusing on the role of domestic networks. Elsa Kania will consider China’s prioritization of technology and innovation as an integral component of its strategy as a rising power. These papers will employ a range of qualitative and quantitative research methods. In this regard, this panel seeks to generate insights that can contribute to the literatures on military innovation and the diffusion of ideas and technologies, while also informing theories of great power politics, power transition, and strategic stability.

Sub Unit

• DIVISION 19: International Security

Individual Presentations

• Measuring and Maintaining the U.S. Defense Technology Lead - Charles Eugene Gholz, University of Notre Dame

• Military Power in the Second Machine Age: Past as Prologue II - Andrea Gilli, NATO Defense College; Mauro Gilli, ETH Zurich

• Costly Innovation: Domestic Networks, Threat Inflation, and Military Offsets - Benjamin M. Jensen

• Fighting to Innovate — A New Era of Chinese Military Power - Elsa Babette Kania, Harvard University

Chair

• Emily O. Goldman

Discussants

• Michael Horowitz University of Pennsylvania

• Emily O. Goldman