Strategies of Subversion in International Politics

Session Submission Type: Full Paper Panel

Session Description

This panel investigates states’ efforts to interfere in the domestic politics of other countries through an array of theoretical approaches. These papers build on the observation that international conflict is increasingly characterized by foreign efforts to shape the leadership and institutions of other countries; yet, little is known about the strategies states use when interfering in foreign countries, whether these efforts are useful tools for resolving policy disputes, and how the threat of subversion shapes larger patterns of hostilities between states.

The first two papers on this panel examine the strategies states use to promote their interests abroad, with an emphasis on foreign political interference. Owen, in particular, investigates why states sometimes promote their own regime type in foreign countries while others times they promote regimes not like their own. He examines U.S. policy towards Latin American governments between 1933 and 1946 to show the role that transnational ideological momentum plays in shaping these decisions. Building on the literature on rebel support, Malone develops a new theory about how states select which armed groups to provide aid, given that there are often numerous groups operating within rival countries that could be useful for advancing their geopolitical objectives. She tests her theory using original cross-national data on armed groups that formed between 1970 and 2012. Turning away from the strategies of foreign interference, O’Rourke and Downes seek to empirically evaluate whether foreign-imposed regime change (FIRC) improve interstate relations between the intervener and target countries. They show that there is little evidence that either overt or covert FIRC improve interstate relations, and under certain circumstances, FIRC is likely to backfire. Finally, Hundley uses a variety of conflict data sets to show that ideological cleavages between states increase the risk of regime conflicts and contribute to the development of international rivalries. In doing so, she challenges the characterization of regime disputes as a product of other foreign policy rivalries and instead suggests that these disputes are a source of international conflict in their own right.

The chair for this panel is Bear Braumoeller, and the discussant is David Lake. Both are leading experts in international conflict and competition. Collectively, this panel promises to advance scholarly understanding of the causes and consequences of states’ use of subversion in international politics.

Sub Unit

• DIVISION 19: International Security

Individual Presentations

• When Do Great Powers Promote Their Own Regime Type Abroad? - John M. Owen, University of Virginia

• External Support and Militant Signaling - Iris Malone, Stanford University

• Foreign-Imposed Regime Change and the Quality of Interstate Relations - Lindsey O'Rourke, Boston College; Alexander B. Downes, George Washington University

• Ideology and International Conflict - Lindsay Hundley, Stanford University

Chair

• Bear F. Braumoeller Ohio State University

Discussant

• David A. Lake University of California, San Diego