Wisdom or Folly of Crowds? Opportunities & Limitations of Citizen Forecasting

Session Submission Type: Roundtable

Session Description

In this roundtable, scholars who have worked extensively on citizen forecasting and citizen expectations will share their insights on the potential and the limitations of forecasting methods that rely on citizens’ expectations. Topics that will be discussed include the role of social networks and social media in forming citizens’ expectations of election outcomes, the role of political knowledge, and the importance of representativeness to generate precise citizen forecasts.

Sub Unit

• Related Groups / Political Forecasting Group

Chair

• Ruth Dassonneville Universite de Montreal

Presenters

• Mary Stegmaier University of Missouri

• Debra Lynn Leiter University of Missouri-Kansas City

• Andrea Ceron Università degli Studi di Milano

• Andreas Erwin Murr University of Warwick