Rebel Service Provision and (Non-)Displacement in the Former FATA, Pakistan

• In Event: Poster Session: Conflict Processes I

Abstract

The paper explores the effects of rebels’ service provision on civilian movement during wartime. It is common in civil war that a government’s counterinsurgency operations result in numbers of internally displaced persons (IDPs) who take refuge from the war’s violence by leaving their communities. In face of imminent threat of the government’s targeting, however, many civilians alternatively choose to stay in their homes and seek the protection of the rebels. It is puzzling in the war situation when rebel cadres often use violence against civilians, that civilians would still anticipate the rebels’ protection from the rival’s offensives. This paper argues that the wartime provision of public services motivates civilians to stay with the rebel group because it demonstrates the group’s capability and commitment to governance assuring civilians’ protection. Using novel survey data collected over two phases from the former FATA region in Pakistan, a two-step Bayesian propensity score analysis reveals that those civilians who had received rebel services were less likely to leave their places of residence.

Contributions of this paper are twofold. First, this paper expands the theoretical scope on civil-military (rebel) relations in civil war. The wartime provision of public services is an essential role of the rebels in forming their relationship with civilians. Such services are considered to have impacts on social relations and behavior of civilians. The current study contributes to the literature by shedding light on the unexplored relationship between wartime governance (i.e., service provision) and civilians’ migration during wartime. Findings of this paper imply that unlike many previous studies claim, civilian migration is caused (not only by violence but also) by nonviolent interaction with the rebels. Second, the findings are relevant to related fields of social sciences such as development studies and economics. Rebel service provision may have a long-lasting impact on post-war society. In the aftermath of civil war, there is often a conflict over local resources and infrastructure between those who remained in their community and those who instead left their homes. Given that people’s migration is influenced by rebel service provision, any communal troubles between the displaced and non-displaced are more complicated than could be anticipated. Relevant policies should be designed with not only consideration for civilians’ experiences of displacement but also their prior interactions with rebel cadres.

Author

• Yuichi Kubota, Nihon University