Causes of Nationalist Ideological Preferences in Ethno-Territorial Conflicts

• In Event: The Public and Conflict Dynamics

Abstract

Direct, large-sample measures of leadership preferences in internal ethno-territorial conflicts have not hitherto been available. As a result, statistical research diverges from case study research in omitting analysis of causes and consequences of leadership preferences. We present a new database that directly measures variation in the nationalist ideological preferences of state and ethnic rebel group leaders for a widely used sample of post-World War II, internal ethno-territorial conflicts. We examine both material and ideological sources of such preferences. Among material sources, we find that relative power predictors are more powerful than predictors of status quo conditions. Among ideological sources, we find that identity predictors based on religious dyad patterns are most powerful. In general, nationalist ideological preferences are better explained on the state side than on the rebel side.

Author

• Shale Horowitz, University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee