Climate Change, Migration, and Urban Conflict

• In Event: The Environment and Conflict

Abstract

Despite the potential importance of migration for the link between climate change and conflict, we still have a limited understanding of the precise mechanisms underlying these relationships. In this paper, we examine whether and how climate-induced rural-to-urban migration contributes to political instability in urban areas. We argue that the mainly forceful and involuntary nature of relocation reduces migrants’ willingness to adjust to their new location. We thus expect that environmental migrants are more likely to perceive conflict and to express an intention to support violence in their new location relative to economic or social migrants. Using original survey data from Vietnam and Kenya, we find that environmental migration results in both heightened conflict perceptions and an increased potential for political violence. Furthermore, we find that while sudden-onset events, including storms or floods, lead to an increased support of low-intensity political violence, such as riots and protests, gradual events like droughts or desertification are linked to more salient and intense attitudes and conflict behavior. The involuntary movement of people due to climatic changes clearly presents major societal and governance challenges. Governments and international organizations need to adopt proactive rather than reactive policies in order to ensure planning and preparedness for climatic changes and to increase the resilience of rural communities vulnerable to the effects of climate change in order to prevent future urban conflicts.

Authors

• Vally Koubi, ETH Zurich

• Quynh Nguyen, Australian National University

• Tobias Böhmelt, University of Essex

• Gabriele S. Spilker, University of Konstanz