Measuring the Strength of Voter Turnout Habits

• In Event: Poster Session: Political Psychology: Applications in Political Psychology

Abstract

Voting in one election makes a person more likely to vote in future elections. Researchers often interpret the over-time turnout persistence as evidence of psychological habit formation. But there are few theoretically motivated or empirically validated measures of voter turnout habit. Habit is most commonly measured using indicators of past election turnout. Individuals who previously voted are usually considered habitual voters. However, habit is a psychological construct, distinct from its behavioral causes and consequences.

This study contributes by clarifying the concept of turnout habit and developing and validating a seven-item measure of the concept. The study is the first, to the author's knowledge, to measure turnout habit as a latent variable rather than by relying on indirect behavioral proxies. The paper describes turnout habit as a durable disposition to vote determined by an ability to automatically initiate voting and self-identify as a frequent voter. The new measure is validated using data from surveys administered before and after the 2015 general election in the United Kingdom and the 2010 Minnesota gubernatorial election. Turnout data are from both state voter files and self-reports.

Multiple methodological approaches are used to validate the measure and test hypotheses about habitual voting. A confirmatory factor analysis indicates that the habit items reflect two distinct but strongly related dimensions representing automaticity and self-identity. Evidence for the predictive validity of the habit measure is particularly strong. Results show that habit accounts for unique variation in future turnout, controlling for a wide range of election-specific considerations, age, and even respondents' own self-predictions. Receiver operating characteristic curves reveal that the habit measure can accurately classify future voters and abstainers as well as self-predictions. Habit also has some advantages over self-predictions in predicting turnout.

The results are largely consistent in the U.S. and UK samples, suggesting that the voting habit measure is a valid and reliable measure across multiple political systems and election types. Self-report voting habit measures appear valuable for answering theoretical questions about why people vote and practical questions about how best to identify likely voters in survey data. More broadly, citizens who repeatedly vote appear to do so, at least in part, to maintain their self-identities as voters and because they can easily and automatically initiate Election Day activities.

Author

• Matthew D. Cravens, Criminal Justice Coordinating Council