Presidential Leadership of Immigration Legislation, 1953-2017

• In Event: The Bully Pulpit: Presidential Communication in an Uncertain Landscape

Abstract

Presidential success in Congress, particularly the influence of presidential speeches on legislation, is a common topic of quantitative political science research. Immigration policy has become a regular issue on the legislative agenda during recent congresses, and is associated with more than a dozen major laws since 1953. Nevertheless, we are aware of no study that examines the impact of the president’s speeches on immigration legislation since 1953. The lack of research on this topic is striking given the centrality of immigration policy to the last four presidential administrations and the impact that the recent immigration debates have had shaping electoral politics, public opinion, and message of diversity and inclusion in the United States. We apply theories of going public and presidential success in Congress to explain the president’s success on immigration policy in Congress. We ask two primary questions in this paper. How often do presidents call on Congress to take action on immigration? How successful are they in encouraging Congress to respond and in what ways? To answer these questions, we have collected data on all presidential speeches on immigration since 1953 and pair them with immigration legislative activity as identified by CQ Almanac and the policy agendas project. Our results, which reveal that unique features of immigration politics have both constrained and expanded opportunities for presidential success on immigration legislation, have important implications for the likely success of future immigration policy reform efforts, particularly during the Trump Administration.

Authors

• Matthew Eshbaugh-Soha, University of North Texas

• Eric Gonzalez Juenke, Michigan State University