Ideological Difference & Party Destabilization in Congressional Primary Contests

• In Event: Intra-Party Dynamics in the US

Abstract

This paper uses data from congressional primaries between 2006 and 2018 to show that the dynamic of these contests has fundamentally changed. What were once low stakes contests concerned with nominating the most competent individual to represent the party in November elections have become races between ideological factions with nationally organized networks, identification and funding. These contests now take place in greater numbers and receive more media and voter interest than at any time since their inception. The greater prevalence of these contests has contributed to a rise in questions about ideological identity of each party. Primary transformation took place and continued during the period of study, with 2018 marking a high point for ideologically factional contests in both parties. Whilst this process continued over the period of study, specific years can be identified in which transformation took place, in the Republican Party this happened in 2010 whilst in the Democratic Party it took place between 2016 and 2018. My data show that these years marked a high point for contests taking place between factional candidates, with ideological difference more frequently cited as the reason for the competition taking place. After these years, numbers of factional and ideological contests remained high rather than reverting to the pre-transformation levels. Structural changes including new political forces participating in the nomination process have made ideology a more prevalent feature, suggesting that ‘factional primaries’ focused on intra-party ideological difference are likely to be a long-term trend. This has been amplified by changes in electoral incentives for the parties and tactical changes on the part of candidates and voters alike. These findings challenge existing theories that claim that the major parties have become more ideologically homogeneous as they have polarized, with evidence that during the nomination process intra-party ideological difference has become more prevalent and now constitutes intra-party polarization.

Author

• Mike Cowburn, Freie Universität Berlin