When is it “Ok” to Leave? Public Opinion Toward State Withdrawals from IOs

• In Event: Legitimzing and De-legitimizing International Cooperation

Abstract

Recent studies have examined why states withdraw from international organizations (IOs), yet – outside of Brexit -- we still know relatively little about the role of the public in supporting or opposing IO exit decisions. Under what conditions does the public support IO withdrawal? To address this question, we leverage a nationally representative survey experiment fielded in the US in late 2018. We show that the public’s opinion of IO withdrawal changes depending on whether the withdrawal is framed as protecting national security, offsetting the negative effects of globalization, or reducing organizational costs. We also show how the public places different reputational consequences on the US President versus the country as a whole and how the public applies a double standard for their own versus other countries. This has implications for the audience cost literature by unpacking the conditions under which the public punishes a leader for reneging on an international commitment versus when they support a leader for prioritizing sovereignty. Furthermore, our study shows the importance of framing exit decisions for research on international collaboration, international organizations, and foreign policy.

Authors

• Felicity Vabulas, Pepperdine University

• Inken von Borzyskowski, University College London (UCL)