Simulating the Process of Cyber Escalation

• In Event: Wargaming and Behavioral Research in IR

Abstract

As a field, we know very little about the process of cyber escalation. Do cyber operations tend to be associated with escalatory responses in crises? How does any new disruptive technology alter the cycle of competitive risk-taking at the core of strategic exchange between rival states? If scholars are going to assert a revolution of behavior due to the advent of cyber weaponry, they must demonstrate a difference in practice. War games and simulations offer a means to exploring this challenge. After observing 300+ crises responses via a war game, two novel insights emerge. In experimental-simulation setting, cyber capable participants tend to not use cyber operations to escalate a hypothetical crisis with a rival state. Second, at the same time when a crisis is triggered by a cyber intrusion and the targeted state lacks effective cyber response options, the crisis tended to escalate. Overall, the results indicate that cyber response options can moderate crisis response in scenarios involving rival states with power parity.

Authors

• Brandon Valeriano, Cato Institute

• Benjamin M. Jensen

• Sam Whitt, High Point University