Why Not Rebel: Repression and the Microfoundations of Political Order

• In Event: Authoritarian Bureaucracies, Coercion and Social Order

Abstract

Analyzing multiple sources of original data, the study investigates how local politics shape the quality and durability of post-conflict governance. Studying the emergence of political order from the ground up, I dispel the conventional understanding that post-conflict stability relies upon fragile bargains negotiated in the capital and applied all at once across the country. Instead, the dynamics creating and sustaining political order remain highly localized, evolving unevenly across space and time in relation to local patterns of conflict and repression. The analysis provides an unprecedented look at the inner workings of a repressive organization, including never before seen details on the decision-making processes that ultimately lead to patterns of wartime repression and local-level liberalization. I examine multiple sources of original data, including intelligence reports extracted from an archive containing more than 10 million formerly confidential records produced by the Guatemalan National Police. I find that patterns of repression, demobilization, and conditional liberalization have enduring legacies. Decades after repressive violence recedes, local politics remain systematically distorted towards moderate reforms supporting the existing order, negating political contests over the fundamental distribution of power.

Author

• Christopher M. Sullivan, Louisiana State University