Failing and Successful Configurations in Episodes of Democratization

• In Event: Explaining Regime Decline and Transition

Abstract

Recent advances in democratization research identify failing and successful episodes of democratic transitions. The so-called FASDEM dataset (1900-2018) distinguishes between different types of failing democratization outcomes: stabilized electoral authoritarianism, failed liberalization, and preempted transitions. Preempted transitions achieve democracy status but do not hold elections before reverting to autocracy, thus they emanate highly similar to successful episodes of democratization. It is one goal of this paper to zoom in on those two groups of failed and successful episodes and unravel why countries with comparably favourable starting positions nevertheless end up with such different outcomes. Apart from this, the paper aims at generally illuminating what combinations of (missing) polyarchy elements have the prospect to fail or succeed. Based on Dahl's (1971) work and by relying on most recent V-Dem data (v9), the paper operationalizes these basic institutional features as freedom of association, freedom of expression and alternative sources of information, share of population with suffrage and clean elections. By making use of set methods, the analysis explores the conjoint effects of the disaggregated indices on the (failing) process of democratization. First findings reveal i) that it is particularly the configurations of the sub-indices on alternative sources of information which are decisive for the outcome of successful or preempted transitions, and ii) - more generally - that the configurations of reforms (year-to-year changes) within failing and successful episodes are of crucial difference.

Authors

• Seraphine F. Maerz, University of Gothenburg

• Juraj Medzihorsky, London School of Economics & Political Science

• Matthew Charles Wilson, University of South Carolina

• Amanda B. Edgell, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa

• Vanessa Alexandra Boese

• Staffan I. Lindberg, V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg