Emigration and Regime (In)Stability in the Former German Democratic Republic

• In Event: Explaining Regime Decline and Transition

Abstract

How does emigration affect authoritarian regime stability? Using an extensive and novel data set of formerly classified government reports, I examine the expulsion of about 50,000 regime critics from the former communist German Democratic Republic (GDR) in 1984. I show that emigration is a double-edged sword when used by authoritarian regimes seeking to increase popular support. The expulsion of regime opponents in 1984 improved regime support initially, but later helped accelerate the demise of the GDR: counties with more emigrants in 1984 saw fewer complaints and increased electoral support for the regime immediately afterwards. This is because the regime successfully identified their strongest opponents and, by allowing them to leave, relieved some pressure on the regime. However, in 1989, when popular unrest grew again and the regime's inability to respond to its citizens' demands became apparent, the same counties experienced more anti-regime protests, and electoral support for the government plummeted. I argue that emigration had this negative effect on regime stability in 1989 because it served as a signal of regime weakness and kept the exit option salient. Once the regime was contested again in 1989, it encouraged the stayers to demand emigration themselves, resulting in higher levels of popular protest and less regime support.

Author

• Hans Lueders, Stanford University