A New Way of Detecting Preference Falsification: A Modus Tollens Method

• In Event: Government Trust in China: Determinants, Trends and Methodology

Abstract

There are ongoing debates about the extent and degree of preference falsification in China’s public opinion, especially when it comes to politically sensitive questions. Employing various methods, scholars find mixed evidence and reach nuanced conclusions. However, all the existing methods face trade-offs among three desired outcomes: 1) capturing preference falsification at the aggregate level, 2) capturing preference falsification at the individual level, and 3) making findings generalizable. This proposed study aims to develop a new method that can achieve all three. Applying modus tollens, a rule of logic, the method uses answers to non-sensitive questions to deduce the answer to sensitive questions. Drawing on original experimental data from China and the US, this study examines the potential preference falsification in corruption, government economic performance, and rule of law in both countries. This study also evaluates the (dis)advantages of this new method compared with list experiments.

Authors

• Yingnan Joseph Zhou, University of Texas at El Paso

• Xuchuan Lei