Why Civil Wars are Fought by Extremists

• In Event: Extremism and Violence

Abstract

Why are civil wars fought by extremists rather than moderates? The median voter theorem holds that organizations contesting for power will shift to the center of the ideological spectrum to maximize their support. Such models assume that supporting means voting and that it is relatively costless. When it is costly for individuals to support organizations contesting for power, such as in civil war contexts, the central tendency is constrained by the cost of participation. In equilibrium, only those to either extreme participate, moderates abstain. The range of moderates who abstain grows larger the more costly participation becomes. I develop a spatial model of participation that exhibits these features and discuss its implications in the case of the civil wars in Central American in the 1970s and 1980s and Syrian Civil War. In Central America, right and left wing forces fought civil wars and moderates were silenced by violence. When elections were held, moderate parties out-polled extremists. In Syria, a broad coalition of opposition groups initially opposed the regime through peaceful demonstrations, that were violently suppressed by the government side. The Free Syrian Army arose when government troops defected to the opposition, and it continued to pursue a moderate political course. However, as the fighting wore on it was eclipsed by Salafi jihadist groups such as the Al Nusra front and the Islamic State.

Author

• Andrew Kydd, University of Wisconsin, Madison