Electoral Cycles and U.S. Foreign Policy

• In Event: Public Opinion and U.S. Foreign Policy

Abstract

Politicians and scholars have long worried that the presidential electoral cycle could set back American foreign policy, but the arguments have been disjointed. I pull together the pieces with a unified theory of presidential power and agendas that contextualizes foreign policy alongside domestic politics. I argue that the electoral cycle shapes foreign policy by altering power, expertise, and incentives. The result is systematic pressures on foreign policy originating from both the outcome of the last election and the shadow of the next. I demonstrate that foreign policy is the refuge of weak presidents, and therefore that the close relationship between the electoral cycle and presidential power introduces systematic variation into American engagement abroad.

Author

• Philip B. K. Potter, University of Virginia