Lone Wolves: Determinants of Alone Participation in Protests

• In Event: Information, Media, Technology & Mass Protest in Comparative Perspective

Abstract

How do people come to protest alone? What role do online social media and offline social networks play in mobilizing ‘lone wolf’ protesters? Social mobilization literature has repeatedly underscored the Network Hypothesis whereby embeddedness into networks and being asked to protest by friends and family are two of the strongest predictors of protest participation. Not only are those part of networks are easier to reach (Klandermans & Oegema, 1987) but networks also increase salience of collective identities which encourage participation (McAdam & Paulsen, 1993) and inspire collective trust (Diani, 1997; Gould, 1993) thus, helping to overcome incentives to ‘free ride’(Olson, 1965). This was found to be particularly important for high-risk/high-cost activities, as networks help members overcome barriers to and potential threats of engagement (Nepstad, 2004; Russo, 2018). Unsurprisingly, scholars have found that most people attend protests together with friends and family or with other members from organizations they belong to. However, using original protest (Onuch2014) and nationally representative panel (UCEPS 2014; MOBILISE 2019/2020) surveys collected in Ukraine we have identified a surprising trend - a substantial group of individuals participate in protests alone. Begging: what are the mechanisms that explain ‘lone wolf’ participation in protests? Building on the fact that most of the above theories acknowledge that how information travels through and is accessed within networks facilitates mobilization, this paper tests accepted hypotheses around Network Embeddedness, as well as, Risk, Cost, Efficacy, and Duty Calculi but builds an argument around the patterns of consumption and access to information differentiating ‘lone wolves’ from the general population. Employing an onsite protest survey of EuroMaidan participants (2014) we first asses what differentiates ‘lone wolves’ from those who came to protest with friends and family, focusing-in on patterns in online and offline information consumption. We then trace these patterns using a three wave nationally representative panel survey conducted in Ukraine in 2014 (which replicated protest survey items), analysing how ‘lone wolves’ compare to other protesters but also to the general population. Finally, employing fresh survey data from nationally representative surveys conducted in Ukraine, Poland and Argentina (2019-2020) - which once again replicated survey items - we compare the information consumption and access mechanisms hypothesized to be behind the trend of ‘lone wolves’ across time (within Ukraine) and across space (between the case countries). Using a series of logistic regression analyses we are able to show that online media play key role in motivating and mobilizing ‘lone’ individuals to protest whereas consumption and access to these media for those embedded in social networks only plays a motivational role.

Authors

• Olga Onuch, University of Manchester

• Felipe G. Santos, University of Manchester