Lost in Welfare Chauvinism? Left Parties Between Electoral Demises and Successes

• In Event: Political Party Dynamics in Contemporary Europe

Abstract

Traditional left-wing parties have been facing a complex crisis across Europe for a while. Both in terms of electoral results or capacity to mobilise members and/or sympathisers, traditional left-wing parties register relevant losses. However, there are several exceptions, for the most part connected to the rise and development of populist radical left parties (i.e. Podemos, Syriza) or to mainstream parties that have shifted towards more radical stances (i.e. the Labour Party). In this context, we aim to analyze the differences in the electoral success of left-wing and radical-left parties in the current 28 EU countries, plus Norway and Switzerland. We take into account their electoral results at the lower chamber between the first election prior to the European economic crisis (2009) and the most recent legislative elections. As such, we assess the relation between changes in social policies (chiefly social expenditures) and electoral results for left wing parties. Contrary to previous researches that studied the change in welfare policies in relation to the electoral success of radical left and centre left wing parties (i.e. Manow and Palier, 2018), we acknowledge that while traditional welfare state resources targeted national citizens mainly, progressive inclusion of non-nationals induced a wide category of heterogeneous representatives of welfare chauvinism to voice their opposition. On this ground, we aim to assess if changes in welfare policies, considered with regard to social expenditures, can be a relevant variable for explaining electoral shifts from left-wing parties to other parties on the left (radical-left parties) or contenders on the right that endorse forms of welfare chauvinism (radical-right populist parties). The question of the crisis of left-parties is not new. However, to the best of our knowledge, this topic has not been dealt with, in particular with regard to comparative studies exploring the phenomenon on a large scale.
Thus, our research aims to look at the correlation between changes in the welfare systems and electoral volatility for parties on the left of the political spectrum. In other words, we aim to assess if changes in welfare policies, considered with regard to social expenditures, can be a relevant variable for explaining electoral shifts from left-wing parties to other parties on the left (radical-left parties) or contenders on the right that endorse forms of welfare chauvinism (radical-right populist parties).
Our analysis is based on largely quantitative research examining electoral data and macroeconomic variables, plus data on political orientation of parties (GALTAN positions and economic left-right) from the CHES. The research is exclusively focused on the supply side and does not take into account the voters’ perspective. In doing so, we first provide a general assessment of the relationship between social policies and electoral results for left wing parties (both traditional and radical left) and welfare-chauvinist, and formulate our expectations. The second part is dedicated to a preliminary analysis of the data, with a focus on potential differences connected to parties that are in government or in opposition, variations among different welfare state models, and the existence of contenders with welfare chauvinist positions.

Authors

• Mattia Collini, Università degli Studi di Firenze

• Sorina Soare, Università di Firenze

• Matteo Boldrini