Emerging Technologies: Implications and Prospects of their Proliferation

• In Event: New Directions and Emerging Technologies

Abstract

Under what conditions do emerging technologies proliferate in the international system? I investigate the likelihood of proliferation of three technologies: artificial intelligence, robotics, and cyber technology. I select these three emerging innovations based on their date of discovery in the 1940s and 50s and analyze the convergent/divergent paths taken by states in their development. I define and argue what sets emerging technologies apart from traditional technologies are not only the volume of data, scale of connectivity and complexity, and high speed, which are often associated with the fourth industrial revolution (ICT revolution), but also the level of prominence and uncertainty these technologies are associated with. Furthermore, this paper examines a subset of emerging technologies (AI, cyber, and robotics) that are dual use, meaning that they can be used for military and civilian applications. This paper draws attention to neglected components in the literature regarding the spread of these innovative technologies and their impact on the probability and nature of conflict. Specifically, the concept of proliferation is evaluated based on two novel dimensions: 1) foreign acquisition or indigenous formation and the 2) degree of transparency and monitoring by international institutions of these technologies. This paper builds on the diffusion of technology and international institutions literature as well as includes empirical analysis concerning the United States and China’s paths of the emerging technologies. In this paper, I show that there is substantial proliferation of cyber technology due to the lack of accountability and transparency elicited by the absence of formal institutions, as well as the minimal costs for non-state actors in comparison to artificial intelligence, which has several formal institutions and a high “in-house” knowledge barrier since the 1940s and 50s. Moreover, there is significant evidence of a growing trend in the exporting of advanced robots throughout the globe, which increases the risk of hacking, engineering problems in target states, and human error issues. Overall, scholarly attention to emerging technologies is increasingly important as these innovations continue to take shape and impact the nature of national and international security.

Author

• Julie George, Cornell University