The Strategic Use of Mobilization by Authoritarian Regimes

• In Event: How Protest Shapes MENA Politics

Abstract

While the causes of protest have been well studied in the literature on contentious politics, the consequences of protest action, particularly in terms of regime response have received less attention. Indeed, to the extent that academic research has considered the effects of protest on regime behavior, much of the focus has been placed on “hard responses” such as repression and militarization, with much less analysis devoted to softer strategies like concession and counter-mobilization. In this paper, I consider a wide range of regime responses to popular protest — including repression, concession and counter-mobilization — to better analyze the relationship between contentious action and its likely effects on regime behavior. Using data from Egypt (2005-2015), I find that autocratic regimes utilize different methods of response selectively as a strategic response to specific categories of political threat. While concessionary tactics are typically utilized in response to economic protests, and repressive responses are associated with larger, highly organized and more violent affairs, counter-mobilization strategies are less sensitive to the specific features of protest and are more likely determined by political constraints faced by the regime. In particular, I find that semi-democratic regimes are more likely to use counter-protest to deter opposition, as these strategies effectively increase the costs of collective action for the populace without drawing negative attention to the regime from outside observers. This research thus contributes to the literature on contentious politics by analyzing how protests prompt varying strategies of authoritarian survival and how these modes of opposition and response may interact.

Author

• Ashley Anderson