The Evolution and Destabilization of US Foreign Policy towards China

• In Event: The Tension in Foreign Policy: A White House Perspective

Abstract

Trump's foreign policy in the Asia-Pacific region since he took office seems different from previous administrations. What are the causes of this change? Is it a major diversion or just one phase of the continued evolution on the same trajectory? Through the textual analysis of the state of the union addresses of the Presidents of the United States for the past forty years, with particular attention to the mentions of China, this paper argues that the shift of US-China policy started a decade before Trump took office. The destabilizing appearance of Trump’s China policy is a result of different demands by Donald Trump and the Washington policy circles. Trump's foreign policy in the Asia-Pacific region mainly stems from his demand for legitimacy in governance, but what has really driven the systematic change in US policy toward China is the change in the attitude of the US policy community in the past decade.
This article first describes the macro policy shifts of the US towards China for the past four decades through textual analysis, then discuss Trump’s foreign policy thinking as he seeks legitimacy from three dimensions: institutional legitimacy, economic legitimacy, and cultural legitimacy. The seemingly unruly foreign affairs approach of a populist-driven president is an organic part of his quest for legitimacy. However, the self-consistent logic of Trump’s foreign policy is not subject to systematic strategic guidance. On the other hand, the collapse of US policy circles' hopes for China's political and economic liberalization has led to the actual hardening of US policy toward China. Not only is Trump not the driving force behind the shift in US policy toward China, but he might also have played a buffering role to avoid further escalation and destabilization of the conflict. This might also mean that unlike other institutions that could recover after Trump, we may see a further deterioration of US-China relations if a president’s approach is no longer different but consistent with the thinking of the larger US policy circle.

Author

• Taiyi Sun, Christopher Newport University