Generational Change in Party Identification: An Accounting

• In Event: Generational Perspectives on American Politics: Applications and Methods

Abstract

An age difference in partisan identification began to appear during the waning years of George W. Bush’s presidency, with younger Americans drawn more toward the Democrats than were their elders. This gap grew during the Obama years and may have grown even further under Trump. Over the same period, the percentage of Americans identifying as Independent also grew substantially as incoming cohorts increasingly gravitated to the independent label. This essay will use longitudinal data from the American National Election Studies, the Pew Research Center, and the General Social Surveys to illustrate and elaborate upon these developments in the American electorate.
The anticipated analysis will use an age-period-cohort procedure that will identify cohort differences while also taking into account period and aging effects. It will evaluate the extent to which changing demographics are driving cohort differences, especially with respect to race/ethnicity. It will also consider whether cohort differences in party identification are also evident in voting behavior.

Author

• Laura Stoker, University of California, Berkeley