Ethnic Nationalism and the Reversal of Trends in State Size

• In Event: State and Region Formation

Abstract

Several scholars have noticed that across the globe, state sizes started decreasing in the early-to-mid 20th century after a previous extended period of growth (see e.g. Lake and O’Mahony 2004; Griffiths 2014). What explains this reversal of trends? For obvious reasons, theories that merely stress the economies of scale of state formation cannot offer a convincing explanation. Instead, our explanation highlights the role of ethnic nationalism, which can have both integrating and disintegrating effects. It is the latter tendency that has become increasingly dominant since the late 19th century. In particular, secessionist activity tends to emerge in areas that are confronted with extension of direct rule by an ethnically distinctive center. To evaluate the effect of nationalism on state size, we introduce new historical ethnicity data focusing on Europe since the 19th century. The spatial ethnicity data are then combined with two other historical datasets on state borders going back to the early 19th century. The empirical approach combines breakpoint analysis of evolving state-size distributions as well as state-level and group-level analysis of mechanisms such as secession, unification and integration. To examine our proposed causal mechanism in greater detail, we trace the extension of direct rule by using geocoded data on the evolution of railroad networks. Other structural factors, such as international norms and natural resources will also be considered. The paper ends with a discussion of how the new wave of ethnic nationalism may continue to destabilize political borders, especially those of multi-ethnic states such as the United Kingdom, Spain and India.

Authors

• Lars-Erik Cederman, ETH Zurich

• Luc Girardin, ETH Zurich

• Carl Müller-Crepon, Oxford University

• Guy Schvitz, ETH