Coalition Building under Authoritarianism and Democratic Transitions in the MENA

• In Event: Poster Session: Comparative Politics of Developing Countries II, African Politics & Middle East and North Africa Politics
  In Poster Session: Poster Session: Middle East and North African Politics

Abstract

The political regimes literature, both in the MENA and elsewhere, has long argued that elite cooperation is crucial in explaining divergent transition outcomes. However, these explanations remained shallow as the roots of cooperation are not unpacked. Why do elites cooperate to find a middle ground between their respective demands or choose not to?

This study aims to understand the causes of cooperation during transition processes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and their impact on transition outcomes. It argues that origins of a strategic cooperation during a transition, and a successful transition outcome in return, can be found in the period preceding the transition attempt. Cooperation during a transition requires the resolution of commitment problems among actors. If the main opposition actors build a successful coalition bloc and work against the regime together under authoritarianism, they develop common grounds, organizational and social capital, trust and a shared vision towards democracy building. Once a democratic transition process starts, these mechanisms provide a solution for commitment problems and facilitate cooperation as a transition strategy among these actors.

The analysis of two failed (Algeria in the early 1990s and Egypt during the Uprisings) and one successful (Tunisia) transition attempts indicates that this pattern goes beyond the Arab Uprisings. Unlike in Algeria and Egypt, the Tunisian opposition actors from different ideological camps had a history of cooperation under Ben Ali regime and founded a strong inter-ideological coalition bloc named October 18 Collective. These experiences provided mechanisms to overcome the commitment problems and helped the parties to pursue cooperation as a strategy for transition. When transition process was in jeopardy, the past experience of coalition building and dialogue proved to be helpful to overcome challenges.

This study is based on a 12-month fieldwork in Algiers, Tunis and Istanbul which includes over 120 interviews with primary and secondary actors and archival research. It also presents evidence from two original surveys, a public opinion survey in currently transitioning Algeria and an elite survey in Tunisia with embedded experiments. The experiments that positive past interaction across ideological lines among actors increase their willingness to compromise. Therefore, the project combines experimental and qualitative evidence and meticulously links the experiences under authoritarianism to cooperation during transition using process tracing.

Author

• M. Tahir Kilavuz, Marmara University