No, Seriously, Are Parties Weak or Strong?

• In Event: Intra-Party Dynamics in the US

Abstract

Scholars have debated whether U.S. political parties are weak or strong, and even how to properly define what constitutes a political party. The 2016 nomination contests, especially the nomination of Donald Trump by the Republican Party despite his initial lack of elite support, have placed strain on many leading theories. Ample recent evidence attests to the strength of partisanship in American politics, but how strong or weak are the parties themselves? What is their capacity to do the things that parties traditionally do, such as generate policies, support their candidates, guide nomination contests, and pick nominees?

The 2020 Democratic presidential nomination now appears poised to challenge scholarly understanding of party influence and elite coordination. We systematically assess the 2020 process, from the initial crowded field to the early contests through the convention, in terms of key scholarly concepts in the study of political parties. We look at the implications of two competing schools of thought about party nominations: Nelson Polsby’s argument about the differences in the nomination process after the McGovern-Fraser reforms, and the Cohen et al (2008) argument that plebiscitary reforms have altered but not completely transformed the dynamics of nominations. We also explore whether the 2020 and 2016 nomination contests suggest asymmetry between the two parties. Finally, we assess the complex role of race and gender in Democratic nomination politics. Our analysis of this unfolding process will take into account sources of disagreement about the observable implications of party strength. For example, which of the Democratic candidates followed a trajectory most consistent with the predictions of elite-centered nomination theories? Which were least consistent? What kinds of indicators might exist that suggest the two parties are becoming more symmetrical as polarization deepens and anti-party populism becomes more prevalent?

Authors

• Julia Rezazadeh Azari, Marquette University

• Seth E. Masket, University of Denver