Border Policies Effect on Migration and Asylum Flows during the EU “Crisis”

• In Event: Managing Migrants and Refugees in Times of Crisis

Abstract

How do refugee and irregular migrant flows respond to the external migration and asylum policies of the European Union (EU)? In the past decade the EU and its member states have been increasingly seeking to stem migration to Europe through the use of “externalisation” policies, including readmission agreements and development aid packages which emphasize border security, as well as strenuous formal visa requirements for potential migrants. It is unclear, however, whether or under what conditions these measures have had their intended effects. In this paper we focus on the spatial and categorical distribution of mobile individuals from 2009 to 2019 and we argue that externalization policies, although partially effective at reducing overall rates of emigration from migrant-origin states, have primarily led to shifts in the routes that migrants choose to take in order to reach Europe, and have mostly affected likely asylum seekers rather than irregular migrants. To test our argument we examine patterns in migration flows since 2009, which covers the period of the so-called “migrant” or “refugee crisis” of 2015, and thus offers a unique context in which to study the relationship between migration policies and flows. Using new data on policy decisions made by the EU and its member states, as well as data from the UNHCR, IOM, Eurostat, and Frontex regarding migration flows, we demonstrate that the implementation of externalization policies triggered several successive shifts in the routes taken by migrants from affected origin states and mainly affected the asylum seekers who were seeking to reach Europe during the period. We supplement our quantitative analyses with case studies of the decisions made by Afghan, Albanian, Eritrean, Nigerian, and Sudanese migrants as they made their journeys to Europe, demonstrating how they took EU policies into consideration when making choices regarding their migration.

Authors

• Filip Savatic, Georgetown University

• Helene C Thiollet, Sciences Po

• Thibaut Jaulin, Sciences Po

• Jean-Noel Senne, University Paris Sud – Paris Saclay, RITM

• Alice Mesnard, City, University of London