Dodging a Bullet

• In Event: Civilian-Military Relations, Authoritarian Regime Durability and Democratization

Abstract

What determines how authoritarian regimes respond to near death experiences? What do they do after a credible but still failed coup attempt?

Most authoritarian regimes are concerned about the possibility of military challenge and spend a good deal of effort trying to avoid coup attempts, whether by offering positive incentives for loyalty to officers in key locations or engaging in intrusive monitoring by military intelligence or by structuring the military in such a way as to discourage coup plotting. A failed coup coup demonstrates that their efforts have failed but also leaves the regime in a position where it can alter path.

Why do some authoritarian regimes respond by liberalizing and moving towards democracy while others respond by professionalizing their armed forces and returning them to the barracks while yet others respond with various forms of intrusive and punitive coup-proofing? What are the menu of strategies available and how do they choose?

The aftermath of a coup attempt is an important point at which civil-military relations in a country change in important ways that create path dependency, so it is important to study the dynamics of this moment more closely.

Author

• Naunihal Singh, U.S. Naval War College