Uncovering the Hirak: Why Algerians Protested against the System

• In Event: Civil Resistance, Causes and Trajectories

Abstract

What motivated thousands of Algerians to take to the streets in 2019 to oust President Abdelaziz Bouteflika? We examine this question through an online survey of 860 Algerians in the two days prior to Bouteflika’s ouster. We employ a Heckman selection model to first examine who supported the protests and then, once accounting for their support, who actually came out to protest. Our results uncover important differences between those two models. The primary determinants of support for the protests was opposition to the Bouteflika regime, frustration with the economy, and support for democracy. However, the primary determinants of actually protesting were being young, male, unemployed, and in urban areas. Furthermore, unresolved legacies of recent history in Algeria turn out to be relevant for protestors’ behavior. We explore how opposition to the 1992 coup and geographic distribution of subsequent massacres shaped patterns of protest. For that, we use an original dataset on massacres that took place in the 1990s. In short, while traditional political and economic variables explain support for the protests, demographic variables and legacies of repression better explain who protested.

Authors

• Sharan Grewal, College of William & Mary

• M. Tahir Kilavuz, Marmara University

• Robert Kubinec, Princeton University