More Bullets, More Doves? The Impact of Violence on Political Behavior

• In Event: Violence against Civilians: Cause and Effect

Abstract

After experiences of armed conflicts, negotiations between governments and rebel groups are commonly used as a resolution mechanism. As part of this strategy, certain degrees of justice are sacrificed in order to reach a peace agreement. How do citizens react to this trade-off? We argue that two factors influence their reaction: community and individual level conflict exposure. First, voters in regions that were affected by conflict are more likely to support peace negotiations because they want to decrease the level of violence in their community. Second however, individuals that directly experienced violence are less likely to support negotiations because they are unwilling to accept an outcome that might imply impunity for certain crimes. We find strong support for these arguments using survey and electoral data from Colombia surrounding the peace negotiations with the FARC. The findings hold across a number of robustness checks and have important implications for our understanding of post-conflict societies.

Authors

• Santiago Lopez Alvarez, Rice University

• Jonathan Homola, Rice University