Enduring Enemies: Domestic Threat Perception and US–Cuba Relations After 1989

• In Event: The Conduct of Warfare: Perceptions and Beyond

Abstract

When great powers withdraw security guarantees from smaller partners, what are the consequences for relations between those partners and their adversaries? Between 1989-1991, the Soviet Union withdrew economic, political, and military support from Cuba, leaving the island vulnerable to external and internal security threats. The United States did not exploit this power shift militarily, however, despite a longstanding interest in Cuban regime change. Castro’s government responded by abandoning Marxist-Leninism, curtailing its activist foreign policy, and embracing capitalism. The level of threat perceived on both sides should have been lower than during the Cold War. Nevertheless, relations between the US and Cuba worsened in the 1990s. What explains this outcome? I argue domestic politics in each country prevented a détente. After Soviet withdrawal, the Cuban regime fostered an increased perception of foreign threat among citizens to guard against domestic instability. Initially, the Bush administration avoided taking military action in the hopes that the regime would collapse without intervention, but US domestic politics eventually demanded a more confrontational approach. To test this theory, I employ analyze text data from both states. First, I use articles from Cuban Communist Party newspapers, Granma and Juventud Rebelde, to test the effect of Soviet withdrawal on Cuban propaganda regarding the United States. Second, I use archival documents from the Bush administration to understand the initial US response to Soviet withdrawal. Finally, I use the text of Congressional speeches to examine how domestic political opinion surrounding US policy towards Cuba shifted throughout the 1980s and 1990s.

Author

• Abby M Fanlo, Stanford University