Overthrowing Revolution: Emergence and Success of Counterrevolution since 1900

• In Event: Domestic and International Responses to Revolutionary Regime Change

Abstract

Many classic theories of revolution characterize counterrevolution as an almost automatic response to revolutionary regime change. Yet little empirical research or data exists on counterrevolutions. This paper analyzes an original dataset of 99 counterrevolutionary challenges since 1900, and forwards an argument to explain historical trends in the emergence and success of counterrevolution.

I define a counterrevolution as an irregular effort in the aftermath of a successful revolution to restore a version of the pre-revolutionary political regime. The data reveal that, in fact, counterrevolution is hardly an automatic or inevitable response to revolution. Only slightly more than half of all successful revolutions have faced counterrevolutionary challenges, and an even smaller proportion – one in five – have actually been overturned. Moreover, counterrevolutions have become less and less frequent since 1900, with rates of counterrevolutionary success falling after the end of World War II, and rates of counterrevolutionary emergence falling at the end of the Cold War.

To explain these trends and patterns I forward an argument that centers on the relative resources available to revolutionaries and counterrevolutionaries in different historical era. A successful revolution entails, almost by definition, that revolutionaries have accumulated more power than the old regime. This explains why a relatively small share of counterrevolutions succeed. But certain types of revolutionaries, like leftist revolutionaries, tend to accumulate more resources with which to consolidate their gains than other types of revolutionaries, like liberal or republican revolutionaries. And the structure of the international system further shapes the level and type of resources available to new revolutionary regimes and their counterrevolutionary foes.

The liberal and republican revolutions that occurred before WWII tended to yield weak regimes, and a multipolar world order offered counterrevolutionary forces multiple potential allies. As a result counterrevolutionary emergence and success were both relatively high. Then, during the bipolar era of the Cold War leftist revolutionary regimes backed by the Soviet Union were able to withstand challenges even from well-resourced US-backed counterrevolutionaries. As a result, although counterrevolutionary emergence remained high, its success declined. Finally, in the unipolar moment of the post-Cold War era the United States switched from being a sponsor of counterrevolution to being a backer of (liberal) revolution. As a result, counterrevolutionary emergence declined. Now, with the retrenchment of the United States from the world stage and potentially the return of global multipolarity, I propose that we may be at the beginning of a new age of counterrevolution.

Author

• Killian Clarke, Georgetown University