The Glass Cliff

• In Event: Claiming, Blaming, and Branding

Abstract

Recent research suggests that women and minorities are more likely than men to achieve leadership positions at times when the odds of success are low due to external factors, e.g., during economic recessions (Brescoll, Dawson, and Uhlmann 2010). Since leaders are less likely to succeed in these positions, this results in a perception that women and minorities are less competent leaders. This is known as the ''glass cliff'' (Ryan and Haslam 2007).

One common explanation for this phenomenon is that women and minorities are selected for precarious leadership positions because they are considered expendable and can be used as scapegoats (Ryan, Haslam, and Kulich 2010; Anderson 2013). Another explanation is that voters stereotype women to be more honest and less corrupt, giving them an edge over sullied male incumbents (see Barnes and Beaulieu 2014; Bruckmuller and Branscombe 2010; Eggers, Vivyan, and Wagner 2018). However, in the context of democratic elections, both explanations present puzzles. The first explains why parties might prefer to nominate female and minority candidates during times of crisis, but it does not explain why voters' choices would also change. The second focuses on voters' choices, but it does not explain why selecting more honest and less corrupt politicians only benefits voters during times of crisis, or why they benefit minority politicians as well as women.

We analyze a formal model of electoral accountability that helps resolve these puzzles. In our model, we introduce the possibility that the glass cliff emerges endogenously. Specifically, we show how the phenomenon emerges through an interaction between candidates' entry choices and voter stereotypes about women and minority candidates. We thus demonstrate that models of electoral accountability have important and overlooked applications within the literature on descriptive representation of women and minorities.

Authors

• Rachel Bernhard, University of California, Davis

• Ryan Hubert, University of California, Davis