Diversionary Discourse: Media and Authoritarian Survival in the Middle East

• In Event: Media & Autocracy

Abstract

How do autocrats use media to preserve their power? The literature on authoritarian durability has largely focused on strategies related to repression, co-optation, and legitimation but has largely ignored the role of media. In recent years, scholars studying China and Russia have examined regime tactics to censor and manipulate information but have generally focused on limiting access to certain type of information and using propaganda to show the regime's strength. In this project, I propose a new theory for how autocrats manipulate media. I argue that during domestic strife, regimes manipulate the discourse around security threats in order to dissuade the public from taking part in protests. Manipulating security threats reduces dissent by emphasizing urgent threats from an out-group, blaming foreign powers for domestic failures, and showing the regime as the sole protector of the public. I test this theory using a quantitative analysis of over 200,000 articles from the Egyptian regime-controlled newspaper Ahram and a qualitative analysis of Ahram’s coverage of two instances of threats unrelated to Egypt: the London 7/7 attacks and the Paris 2014 attacks. The London attacks happened when there were no significant protests in Egypt but the Paris attacks happened during protests in Egypt, allowing us to examine how protests influenced regime coverage. I further test the effectiveness of this strategy on attitudes using an original survey experiment and on behavior by analyzing how coverage of threats by Islamist groups correlates with the participation of Christian groups in protests. I then show the external validity of this strategy by examining regime-controlled media in several other countries, including Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. This project contributes to the literatures on authoritarian durability and the use of autocratic media. It also advances the scholarship on autocratic responses to the Arab uprisings and demonstrates how regimes have reconsolidated in the period after the uprisings.

Author

• Ala Alrababah, ETH Zurich