Strategies of the Rimland: Power Shifts and Military Postures in Europe and Asia

• In Event: Power Shifts: Strategies, Responses, and Consequences for International Politics

Abstract

This paper introduces a typology of the military postures that regional powers have adopted in response to emergent great powers in the modern era—differentiated along the core dimensions of independent militarization and regional coalition-building—and identifies the conditions under which each type is likely to prevail. The theoretical framework begins with the recognition that, although states generally have the incentive to counterbalance the rise of a disproportionately powerful neighbor, policies designed for this purpose can sometimes exacerbate their insecurity by 1) encouraging the adversary to engage in preventive military action or 2) facilitating the strategic expansion of a nearby coalition partner that may become yet another threat in the future. Therefore, only states that occupy reasonably strong power positions vis-à-vis both hostile and friendly neighbors can afford to accept the risks of "full-spectrum balancing"—that is, competing with the rising power in all core dimensions of military posture. A survey of the military postures adopted by France and West Germany during the early Cold War vis-à-vis the Soviet Union as well as those pursued by contemporary South Korea and Japan in response to the rise of China lends initial support to this framework.

Author

• Joshua Byun, The University of Chicago