Going Beyond Alliances: Measuring Military Commitment as a Latent Variable

• In Event: Poster Session: International Security II

Abstract

Given the static nature of alliances, why does military cooperation vary significantly across states and over time? Often, a relevant third party has incentives to influence the outcomes of international disputes by committing to militarily support its preferred side. Most studies of third-party military commitments measure them by the obligations and provisions laid out in alliance treaties between states. Yet a static measure of alliances only provides a snapshot of military commitments made at the time of signing and does not account for variation between states and over time. Using an original cross-national, time-series dataset on US military cooperation, this paper employs mixed data Bayesian factor analysis to measure military commitment as a latent variable. The measurement model provides a principled way for scholars to make meaningful comparisons of underlying third-party military commitment, including varying commitments between members of the same alliance, commitments to states in different regions, commitments to allies vs. non-allies, and commitments over time. This study contributes to measuring latent external military support and its effect on conflict.

Author

• Stephanie Kang, University of Southern California