Pothole Politics in Moscow

• In Event: Blame and Accountability in Authoritarian Regimes

Abstract

Both democratic and authoritarian governments have been investing in digital technologies to deliver services and interact with their citizens in new ways. In authoritarian regimes these technologies are sometimes used by political opposition groups seeking to increase citizens’ engagement with local issues and politics and local governments seeking to increase their performance legitimacy and engagement with the city residents. The efficacy of such strategies has been understudied, however, as has the ability of different groups to capitalize on them. What determines the outcomes of such technologically-enhanced governance and local politics for political support? Who benefits in the end? Who is better positioned to take advantage of these technologies in authoritarian regimes: local governments or local political opposition? Does crowdsourcing information for local governance provision help to grow new, engaged citizens or help the local governments to stay in power? This research project addresses these questions by looking into the electoral implications of two types of digital applications to report road potholes in the city of Moscow (Russia). The first application to report potholes in Moscow – ‘rosayama’ (rosyama.ru) - was introduced in 2010 by Alexei Navalny’s Foundation Against Corruption (FBK). Its spread and usage coincided with political protests in Moscow during 2011-2012. Later in 2012, Moscow’s municipal authorities introduced their own application to report potholes in the city. Their site ‘dorogi.mos.ru’ has since become the largest aggregator of complaints about potholes in Moscow. At the same time, FBK’s ‘rosyama’ lost much of its relevance starting around 2014. In essence, the civic initiative introduced by the political opposition was co-opted by the Moscow municipal government. This research employs the latest big-data techniques and causal inference econometrics (including geospatial analysis and econometric identification strategies based on highly granular topological and meteorological data within Moscow city) to explore whether the increasing or decreasing number of complaints about potholes on Moscow roads (as reported through competing pothole applications developed by political opposition and municipal authorities) is associated with particular electoral patterns during the elections for Moscow mayor in 2013 and 2018.

Author

• Gulnaz Sharafutdinova, King's College London