The Political Consequences of Independent Candidates in South Africa

• In Event: Democracy, Representation, and Elite Recruitment in Africa

Abstract

This paper investigates the causes and consequences of independent candidate competition in South Africa, where rising numbers of independent candidates reflect internal challenges to the dominant African National Congress (ANC). The analysis focuses on the 2011 local government elections where the number of independent candidates rose in response to irregularities in the ANC’s candidate selection process. Independents emerged in ANC strongholds, contrary to theories of strategic entry, and won support from ANC voters who split their ballot. But while the emergence and performance of independent candidates may reflect popular discontent among ANC partisans, this sentiment has had limited effect on political competition in subsequent periods. This paper uses ballot position to instrument for the competitiveness of independent candidates. Competitive independent candidates have a negligible effect on the ANC’s political fortunes with most evidence suggesting that they bolster the incumbent’s position. Independent candidates may be bellwethers of discontent with the ANC but they do not signal greater willingness to reject the party over time.

Author

• Itumeleng Makgetla, Yale University