Copy Thy Neighbour: Spatial Interdependences in the Democracy-Repression Nexus

• In Event: States as Protectors and Violators of Human Rights

Abstract

One of the principal findings in the literature on state repression is that democratic institutions reduce repression as this institutional equilibrium creates a higher expected cost for using repression. While the literature does not agree whether democracy exerts a linear on non-linear effect on repression, it converges on the pacifying domestic effect of democracy on repression. Yet, there is an emerging body of research indicating that domestic levels of repression are influenced by events and repressive policies from connected countries. Similarly, the literature on democratic diffusion indicates that democracy is not only the product of domestic structural factors, but also that democracy diffuses across space. Against this background, this paper re-examines the effect of democracy on repression by developing and empirically testing novel theoretical propositions on the spatial dimensions of democracy and repression. Specifically, the paper proposes that democracy exerts negative effects on repression not only on a domestic level, but also at an international level through neighbouring effects. Countries with a higher share of neighbouring democracies have lower levels of repression. Next, the paper proposes that repression diffuses across neighbouring countries as regimes adjust their domestic levels of repression based on levels of repression in neighbouring countries. Combining spatial econometric models and simulations, the paper finds support for a diffusion effect of repression at a regional level, and shows that, when spatial dynamics are empirically accounted for, the pacifying effect of democracy on repression is less important than previously found in existing literature.

Author

• Roman-Gabriel Olar, Trinity College, Dublin