The Effect of Media on Public Opinion during Diplomatic Crises

• In Event: Nationalism, Public Opinion, and Foreign Policy

Abstract

How does media affect public opinion during diplomatic crises? Does dramatically heightened media coverage of a diplomatic crisis necessarily make the public lean towards a more hawkish policy? States, democracies or autocracies alike, frequently resort to media campaigns to manipulate public opinion on foreign policy issues. But the effect of these campaigns on the target audience, especially in crisis situations, are not clear. Using a survey experiment carried out in China, Vietnam and the Philippines, this study examines the interaction between the media and public opinion on interstate disputes during crisis situations. I find that the effect of crisis media coverage varies with the individual’s existing level of nationalism. Aggressive media coverage in large volume and harsh content can make a non-nationalist lean towards a more hawkish policy, and counterintuitively, can also make a dovish policy more tolerable to a nationalist. This conditionality on nationalism suggests that harsh rhetoric can achieve divergent effects on the audience depending on who the audience is. In a world diplomacy is becoming increasingly popular, this study has important implications to studies of nationalism and conflicts as well as to policy. 

Author

• Frances Yaping Wang, Singapore Management University