Economics and Elections: Then, Now, and the Future

• In Event: New Developments in Economic Voting Research

Abstract

What is the future of economic voting? In this “think piece”, we begin with a literature-based assessment of economic voting across democracies to establish a baseline from which to peer into the future. As we look to the future, we consider how critical economic events and trends might impact this relationship. We examine the anticipated economic effects of Brexit, US Trade Wars, the declining middle class, rising inequality, the gig economy, and climate change, and theorize how citizens will respond politically. Will voters be more likely to attribute responsibility to the government and thus strengthen the relationship between the economy and election results? Or, will the economy-vote link deteriorate as attributions to individual citizen actions increase or as a result of international conditions that are beyond the control of national politicians? The answer depends on which event/trend we consider and the complexity of how these changes interact.

Authors

• Mary Stegmaier, University of Missouri

• Michael S. Lewis-Beck, University of Iowa

• Brandon Beomseob Park, University of Reading