The Strategic Use of Self-Rule Referenda

• In Event: Strategies of Shaping Peoples and States

Abstract

From Catalonia to Kurdistan, Scotland to Quebec, self-rule referendums have become popular tools used by separatists to advance their cause. Although self-rule referendums appear similar in kind – i.e. individual-level voting to signal a popular will for greater autonomy – the context, process, audience, and goals of referendums vary considerably. For example, some referendums are called by separatists who engage solely in non-violent politics, while others are employed by rebel groups. In the former context, referendums may be the primary tactic by which separatists pursue autonomy, while in the latter, the referendum is a complement to the threat or use of violence. Moreover, while some referendums bind themselves to a final declaration of independence should the vote succeed, others have more incremental goals that merely increase the bargaining leverage of separatist actors in broader political processes. These include raising the international profile of a movement, arousing nationalist sentiment, and credibly signaling a movement’s resolve. Some referendums are sanctioned by the central government, while others are unilaterally organized by separatists without its consent. Finally, while some self-rule referendums are advanced by segments of the broader movement, others are organized with near unanimous support. In latter context, the target audience is often the central government with the referendum designed to shift the balance of power between separatists and the state. In the former, the separatist population may be the primary audience with referendum politics serving as a forum for intra-movement competition. In this paper, we argue that separatists strategically employ referendums in different ways to achieve a diverse set of political goals. We build a novel cross-national dataset on self-rule referenda and we analyze the conditions under which these referenda are more likely. We also explore the consequences these referenda have for actual self-rule gains of groups, on the one hand, and for intra-movement political gains, on the other.

Authors

• Kathleen Gallagher Cunningham, University of Maryland, College Park

• Laia Balcells, Georgetown University

• Morgan L. Kaplan, Harvard Kennedy School