Trade Policy is Back in the News: Will Voters Care?

• In Event: Do Voters Even Care about Trade? If so, How, and through What Channels?

Abstract

In the post-NAFTA period, U.S. politicians touting trading protectionism but voting for trade liberalization paid little electoral cost, arguably because NAFTA received relatively little media or political attention after its ratification. Now that trade is in the spotlight, will politicians be held accountable? I argue that the highly partisan nature of today’s trade discourse – a new dimension for trade opinion – creates obstacles for electoral accountability because preferences follow rather than drive partisanship. Drawing on previous research and a 2017 survey experiment fielded before and after President Trump’s trip to China, I show that the ability of trade messaging to cross party lines has weakened and that Trump’s followers strongly react to information cues from Trump but fail to react to information-based accusations of flip-flopping on his most prominent trade-related promise: increased protection against China. The ability of politicians to shape preferences rather than respond to the will of constituents calls into question the electoral connection on critical government policies even when they become salient.

Author

• Alexandra Guisinger, Temple University