Elite Cues and Attitudes Toward Globalization

• In Event: Do Voters Even Care about Trade? If so, How, and through What Channels?

Abstract

Does anti-trade rhetoric fuel backlash against globalization? My paper shows that politicians’ protectionist cues -- rather than direct exposure to import competition– drive public opposition to trade. Whereas current approaches emphasize individual-level psychological drivers of ethnocentrism, I argue that politicians strategically highlight negative effects of trade to gain electoral advantages over their opponents, stoking negative sentiments toward global economic integration. Using data on trade-related political advertising during 2000-2016, I show that negative advertising on trade fuel opposition toward international trade, comparing trade opposition of same-state contiguous counties that differ in their exposure to negative trade ads due to their assignment to different media markets. My analysis indicates that the level of trade competition doesn’t motivate trade-related advertising. Rather, candidates exploit economic anxiety caused by the Great Recession in order to use trade issues to attack their opponents in elections. The explosion of trade-related ads in 2010 midterm elections after the Great Recession is consistent with my main argument. My findings thus shed light on the dynamics of trade attitudes – they shift across geographies and over time, depending on the intensity of coverage of trade issues in political ads.

Author

• Aycan Katitas, Princeton University