Conflict and Trust in Institutions in a Closed Autocracy: Evidence from Sudan

• In Event: The Psychology of Violence

Abstract

This paper investigates how exposure to different types of conflict affects public trust in autocratic institutions. Using a unique dataset from Sudan that spans a time period involving substantial unrest and fighting across the country, we present causal estimates of the impact conflict has on trust in a range of institutions. On average, battles that involve government forces fighting against rebels or militia increase trust in political institutions such as the government and parliament. On the other hand, remote violence, protests and riots, and violence against citizens weaken trust in institutions. We show that these effects differ by geographic region, political affiliation, and socio-economic status. An instrumental variables strategy based on temperature at the time of conflict reveals these results are robust to potential reverse causality. These findings have important implications for understanding regime vulnerability in non-democracies that rely on depleting or disappearing natural resource rents.

Authors

• Cait Brown, Central European University

• Cristina Corduneanu-Huci, Central European University