The Gendered Politics of Congressional Elections

• In Event: Are Women Electable?

Abstract

Are women less likely to attract votes or win elections? We conduct a large-n longitudinal analysis that employs survey and observational data from all 435 congressional races over a 12-year period (2006-18) and connect individual-level theory and evidence with aggregate-level results to demonstrate a gender penalty in congressional vote-choice and election outcomes. Our results show that female Democratic candidates are penalized, whereas female Republican candidates and male Democrats are not. Perceived ideological distance does not explain the penalty; rather, respondent partisanship and gender does. Male Republicans and male independents are significantly less supportive of a female Democrat compared to a male Democrat. At the aggregate-level, once the proportion of male Republicans and male independents is held constant, female Democrats are as likely as male Democrats to win elections. These findings have important implications for our understanding of the micro-level factors that shape women’s electoral fortunes; and advance the democratic norm of representational equality, by helping candidates and campaigns to identify and concentrate their efforts on the most winnable districts.

Authors

• Sarah A. Fulton, Texas A&M University

• Kostanca Dhima, Texas A&M University