Thresholds in Cyberspace and Beyond

• In Event: The Politics of Cyber Threat

Abstract

Central to both the Department of Defense Cyber Strategy and the Cyber Command Strategic Vision is an assumption that the vast majority of cyber activities will occur under a "threshold of armed conflict." Thresholds are therefore pivotal concepts to both U.S. cyber strategy and its larger strategic success. Despite the use of the concept within current U.S. strategy and within U.S. nuclear development, is we know very little about when and why thresholds occur or persevere outside cyberspace, much less in the new domain. This paper explores the concept of thresholds, their history within strategy, and why they are central to current DoD cyber and nuclear strategy. It then discusses the variables that create thresholds and explores how thresholds are created and where thresholds may exist. The next section provides an overview of existing theoretical and empirical research on cyber thresholds and finally concludes with recommendations about thresholds in U.S. cyber strategy as well as caveats about threshold assumptions for U.S. cyber strategy.

Author

• Jacquelyn Schneider, Stanford University