Is Deliberation an Antidote to Polarization? Reflections on America in One Room

• In Event: Seeking Solutions to Polarization: The United States in Comparative Perspective

Abstract

America in One Room (A1R) is a national field experiment in voter deliberation conducted near the beginning of the primary season. It is a national Deliberative Poll with a sample of 526 registered voters drawn from around the country and a pre-post control group of 844, both selected and recruited by NORC at the University of Chicago. The voters deliberated about five key issues—the environment, foreign policy, health care, immigration and economic issues (tax and spend). The process consisted of moderated small group discussions and plenary sessions with panels of competing experts. The most right-leaning proposals lost a great deal of support among Republican voters while the most left-leaning proposals lost a great deal of support among Democrats. These striking changes pose the challenge which this paper will confront. Why did Republicans moderate on immigration with changes of up to 30 points on issues like sending undocumented immigrants back to their home countries or reducing the flow of low skilled immigrants to the US? Why did Democrats reduce their support by large percentages on issues like providing a “baby bond” for each new child, or a universal basic income or a $15 Federal minimum wage? We will use both quantitative and qualitative methods in attempting to explain such changes. Empirical premises, values and other explanatory variables relevant to the proposals will provide the basis for regressions. The transcripts of the discussions in the forty small groups will be mined for insight into what motivated the changes.
The resulting picture of public opinion is not one of entrenched partisan polarization. It is a picture of public opinion that is more fluid and more open to reconsideration if people can actually talk to each other in a civil and evidence-based environment.

Authors

• James S. Fishkin, Stanford University

• Larry Diamond, Stanford University

• Alice Siu, Stanford University

• Norman Bradburn, University of Chicago