Primaries and the Demobilization of People of Color in Legislative Elections

• In Event: Winning the Nomination: An Examination of Campaign Strategy in Primary Elections

Abstract

What is the effect of primary electoral systems on minority voting rights in the United States? Are voters of color less likely to participate in legislative elections conditional on state primary rules? We theorize that U.S. closed primaries demobilize voters of color in two ways. First, closed primaries mechanically exclude those not registered with their party in states that use closed primary systems. While Black, Latinx and Asian-American voters lean Democratic, the proportion of these voters registered as independents has skyrocketed in the last decade; while white voter proportions registered as independents have not increased at the same rate. As of 2020, more Latinx and Asian-American people are registered independents than are whites. Second, primary system type is also associated with electoral competition in the general election. Closed systems are associated with low-competition general elections, especially in majority-minority legislative constituencies. In contrast, in top-two systems, the general election often is often a Democrat-versus-Democrat contest in geographic areas with large minority populations. This Democrat-versus-Democrat election that occurs in the top-two system causes greater competition in Democratic and majority-minority constituencies in the general election when compared to traditional Democrat-versus-Republican general elections in closed and other systems. Using individual survey data paired with legislative and electoral system data at the district and state level, we examine U.S. congressional elections from 2006 to 2018 to assess minority-white turnout differentials in primary elections and general elections, conditional on primary system type. Difference-in-difference estimates of aggregate congressional turnout are presented; and associational evidence of individual-level turnout is examined. We conclude that electoral systems matter for shaping elite strategies toward minority voter mobilization.

Authors

• Raquel Centeno, University of Southern California

• Nancy Hernandez, University of Southern California

• Kayla Wolf, University of Southern California

• Christian R. Grose, University of Southern California